The quick post-mortem on HD-DVD:
- It was a better standard in almost every way but capacity (and double layer HD-DVD discs made even that a moot point). Blu-ray can be spectacular, but the specification is still evolving.
- HD-DVD died because consumers bought more Blu-ray discs. Consumers bought more Blu-ray discs because there were more Blu-ray players sold. There were more Blu-ray players sold because most of those were Sony Playstation 3's (PS3). Thus, Sony's decision to include a Blu-ray player in the PS3 was the primary factor in the death of HD-DVD.
That doesn't mean Sony won. First, Jeremy Toeman points out all the same things I've been saying for years - if mainstream consumers don't see the need for a high definition format*, the fact that it doesn't have any direct competition won't matter.
I also wonder whether the decision to put Blu-ray in the PS3 was worth the cost to Sony's gaming efforts. The PS2 dominated the industry, but the PS3 is struggling with both Microsoft and Nintendo, in part because the PS3 costs more and was launched later due to Blu-ray.
*I have found that the difference between upsampled DVD and a well mastered Blu-ray is marginal on a 50" 720p plasma from 12' away. The difference is easily noticeable on a 1080p projector displayed on a 92" screen at the same distance; that's nice, but hardly mainstream.
Full disclosure: once Warner pulled out of HD-DVD, the format war was effectively over, so I bought a PS3 for use as a Blu-ray player. The Blu-ray standard keeps changing, but Sony seems determined to keep its flagship console updated with regular firmware updates. As such, the PS3 may be the only Blu-ray player on the market today that will still be current a year or two from now. And it's priced about the same as a low end Blu-ray deck. The only downside is that the PS3 uses Bluetooth instead of infrared for controls, which makes integrating it into a home theater system less than ideal. I'm using Nyko's infrared remote control along with a Logitech Harmony system; it works, but won't turn the PS3 on or off.
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